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the board / Engineering & AI

Fusion Net Energy

We made a star in a lab — we still can't plug one into the grid

open for 75 years

posed 1951 · Lyman Spitzer and the first controlled-fusion programs

Can a fusion machine produce more usable electricity than the whole plant consumes — steadily, safely, and cheaply — rather than just more energy out of the fuel than the beams put in?

The problem

In December 2022 the National Ignition Facility achieved fusion ignition, releasing 3.15 megajoules from a fuel capsule hit with 2.05 megajoules of laser light — the first time a lab fusion reaction produced more energy than was delivered to the target. NIF has since repeated ignition many times, reaching a record 8.6 MJ from 2.08 MJ of laser energy in April 2025. But that gain counts only the laser light on target: the facility draws vastly more electricity from the grid per shot, and fires a few times a day, not several times per second as a power plant would need. Engineering net energy — a machine whose total electrical output exceeds its total input, with walls, magnets, and fuel cycles that survive years of operation — remains unsolved. ITER's re-baselined schedule pushes full deuterium–tritium operation to 2039, while private machines like Commonwealth Fusion's SPARC race to demonstrate net fusion gain in a compact device.

Why it matters

Practical fusion would mean carbon-free power from fuel extracted from seawater and lithium, with no long-lived high-level waste and no meltdown risk. Whether it arrives in the 2030s or never is one of the largest open questions in energy — and billions in public and private capital hinge on the answer.

Progress so far

  • 1951Lyman Spitzer proposes the stellarator; dedicated controlled-fusion programs begin
  • 2022NIF achieves fusion ignition: 3.15 MJ out from 2.05 MJ of laser energy delivered to the target
  • 2024ITER adopts a new baseline: research operations from 2034, full deuterium–tritium operation delayed to 2039
  • 2025NIF sets a new record: 8.6 MJ yield from 2.08 MJ of laser energy, a target gain above 4
  • 2026Commonwealth Fusion Systems' SPARC tokamak assembly advances, first plasma targeted for 2027

References

  1. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (NIF)official account of the 2022 ignition milestone and what target gain does and does not mean
  2. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (NIF)the April 2025 record shot: 8.6 MJ from 2.08 MJ, target gain greater than 4
  3. ITER Organizationthe 2024 updated baseline schedule for the world's largest tokamak
  4. Commonwealth Fusion SystemsSPARC, the compact high-field tokamak designed to demonstrate net fusion energy gain
Status: open. Verified still unsolved as of 2026-07-24. Every date, name, and claim above traces to the references; if this problem falls, the board will say so.